Cause of Death, Polonium-210

There are many ways to kill a man, but one does wonder what strategic thinking lies behind using a highly traceable substance to do so. I mean it sounds all high tech an' all, but seriously, why would you want to use a substance that leads right back to your door to poison your enemy? Think about, I'll be asking questions later.

The death of Alexander Litvinenko, the former Russian spy that died on November 23 after falling ill more than three weeks earlier, is attributed to high doses of polonium-210. A radioactive trail leads investigators to identify the path of the assassin, which apparently leads all the way back to Moscow, and - by implication - Valdimir Putin. In remarks before his death, Putin is Litvinenko's pick for the villain here.

Now, I'm no supporter of tyrants and Russia is - how shall we say? - "politically confused." But we are left with only one of a few possibilities when we apply good reason - and it points away from Putin.

We can't ignore sheer stupidity, but it seems unlikely. Assuming sheer stupidity can be dismissed, we must assume that the use of a radioactive substance, and the resulting trail, are entirely intentional. Whoever killed Litvinenko knew that the element would be identified, because radiation poisoning has distinctive symptoms, and they knew that the element would leave behind traces.

So why? It really can only be one of two possibilities - and they are so obvious that the planner's of the assassination just had to know this ambiguity existed. One, it's a set up. Someone wanted a high-profile way to point the finger at Putin - and one can only begin to imagine the political nuances that lead to that plan. Or two, it's a statement. Putin wanted to send a clear statement to Russians living abroad that might be causing trouble for the nice guy at the top.

So which is it? I can only say for sure who it does not seem to be. It does not seem to be the Russian ex-pat community. The plan relies on their outrage and the clear threat against them simply eliminates them from the picture. So it either is Putin, or someone in Russia that wants to bring Putin down. Given that Putin seems to also be at clear risk here, the probability is the latter.

If whoever it is is capable of getting access to Polonium-210, then they are either a pretty sophisticated bunch or they really are stupid. Watch out in the coming days for either more political instability in Russia or a return of the cold wall of silence.