No way in hell, Obama.

Let me begin by saying that I am encouraged that Barack Obama won the democratic nomination. But then I would have been encouraged in exactly the same way if Hillary had won.

That a woman and a black man got to run off for the democratic nomination is interesting and encouraging. In my view it does say good things about the social condition of our society. It is a move in a more enlightened direction. But don't get too comfortable with it. It could also set us back severely.

The cynical view is not that a black man won but that patriarchy won: rather than pick a woman, the democratic party preferred any kind of man, even a black man.

If you have been tracking the development of my political theories you will know that I take none of this seriously. Politics is futile. It is simply the drama surrounding inevitable social outcomes. Politicians are instruments of these outcomes but have no real control over them. The public cannot help but get itself drawn into these futile entertainments. It is literally no better than watching a bad TV show like "Jeopardy" and it has about as much impact upon the world.

I deplore this glorification of bureaucrats regardless of color or gender. However, there are several potential and "inevitable" outcomes that are worth considering for those of us that make long term plans and need to navigate societal activity (even if it is just to avoid it entirely). I use "inevitable" here in the sense that whichever of them is "true" there is nothing that can stop them now.

First, it seems to me, is the very likely case that Obama loses. It seems unlikely that the democratic party will risk nominating either a woman or a black man again any time in the foreseeable future, and that will be a sorry state of affairs in which to find ourselves. If Obama does not win, the right and just social cause in the current system for blacks and women is set back decades. It could be another 20 or even 50 years before such an event becomes "politically viable" again.

The second case to consider is the exceedingly unlikely case that Obama wins. So let me address my negativity here. Why do I consider it so unlikely that Obama will win?

Consider that this is the nation that elected George W. Bush in two consecutive terms. That is an important data point. It is a reflection of the state of the nation and is a clear indication of just where it's "head" is at. Simply put, it has its head up its ass. So what has changed so much in convention over the past 4 years that it would elect a black man? The answer is nothing at all.

In fact, despite the ruckus over Iraq, things are not as bad in terms of public perception as we thought they might just be three years ago. Today most people are more concerned with the close to home matters that effect them personally. In other words, they are worried about the economy.

The war in Iraq is bad, but not so bad as to wreck the fortunes of the Republican Party, clearly.

Sure George Bush is the worse Presidential PR exercise since Richard Nixon, and he really IS a crook. On his watch America became a country that threw out the Geneva convention and eliminated international moral standards that took centuries to establish. On his watch he introduced an oppressive regime, falsely imprisoned the innocent, and severely damaged the foundations of American righteousness.

But, apparently, everyone is fine with that. We are so scared of the Islamic Boogie Men that we are actually prepared to accept what had previously appeared in my mind to be inconceivable. America sacrificed the constitution and accepted the leadership of fools. It has only itself to blame.

In this light McCain is an American Sweetheart and I fully expect him to win - and I can say that because I simply do not, under any circumstances, vote. My vote would have no effect what-so-ever on these outcomes and I am not prepared to sanction the farce. The outcome is inevitable, remember.

Worse for Obama, McCain is familiar in a way that Obama never can be. McCain looks like a president, he is what the majority expect as a president, he will not look out of place in the history books that every America child has read.

Jimmy, Ronny, George, Bill, George ... Barack ... nah ... John. It just fits.

Now this is not to say that Obama can't win. In fact, he should win. But not only should he win. He must survive his presidency.

Obama won the nomination in large part because he was able to mobilize the minorities. He could, perhaps, win in November by the same means. The very fact that a black man is running will inevitably bring out the minorities to vote. People that have never voted before will run to the election in droves. Many will see it as a chance to put a nail in the coffin of the white man. So his win may indeed be inevitable, despite my expectations. These expectations are not directed by my experience in California, where Barack will, I have no doubt, be greeted with open arms. They are directed to some degree by my knowledge and experience of the East Coast, South and Midwest of America.

So the question really becomes: is the Right of America sleeping? Are they alert to the danger that the conservative lifestyle faces? If it is sleeping and it is not alert now then it will awaken in January with a shock. The inevitable backlash that will produce could bring bloodshed on this soil.

No one wants to say it I know, but that blood could be Obama's and he has no doubt considered this. The biggest challenge of an Obama Presidency is going to be keeping the man alive.